Correction: Launch capacity to exceed demand over next ten years

This article has been altered from the original that was published on Friday April 7, which featured a typographical error. The original article quoted Arianespace USA President Clay Mowry as stating “I think scenarios where launchers are out of action…

This article has been altered from the original that was published on Friday April 7, which featured a typographical error. The original article quoted Arianespace USA President Clay Mowry as stating “I think scenarios where launchers are out of action for a year can happen with these mature systems.”

The correct quote is contrary to that statement and reads “I think scenarios where launchers are out of action for a year will not happen with these mature systems.” SatelliteFinance apologises to Mr Mowry for the error.

The long-term trend for available launch capacity is 52% higher than market demand over the next decade, according to a new study on the sector by aerospace analyst, the Tauri Group.

The study, which was commissioned by Arianespace, focuses on launch prices over the last ten years and projected launch capacity in the future.

The report concludes that, given that the three largest satellite operators will enter a period of lower capital expenditure in the next five years, there will be demand for 20 to 21 geosynchronous launches per year through to 2018.

It assumes that Arianespace and International Launch Services, the mainstays of the industry, will be augmented by the return to flight of Sea Launch, and small contributions to the commercial sector from SpaceX’s Falcon 9, Japan’s H2A, the United Launch Alliance’s Atlas V and China’s Long March rockets.

Arianespace states that the report highlights its belief that satellite operators’ fears about diminished access to space as a result of Sea Launch’s time out of action are overstated.

Clay Mowry, President of Arianespace USA, told SatelliteFinance that both the Ariane 5 and ILS’ Proton rockets are now at the stage where any technical issues that arise are the product of quality assurance problems rather than fundamental technical defects.

This means that even in the event of a launch problem, neither rocket should ever be out of commission for long. “I think scenarios where launchers are out of action for a year will not happen with these mature systems,” he said.

The Tauri report also revealed that launch prices per kilogram of lift dropped by 34% in the decade from 1999 to 2008. Using the 2008 dollar valuation, the average price fell from US$32 per kilogram in 1999-2000 to US$21 in 2008.

The largest drop came in the 2001-2002 period, mirroring wider industry difficulties. However, prices continued to dip less drastically until 2005 onwards, and the increase from that point has not been drastic.

One analyst told SatelliteFinance that launch prices have essentially dropped from one plateau that existed throughout the 90s to the lower plateau they have been at throughout most of the last decade.

The report argues that the reason prices dropped and have stayed at this lower plateau is due to the increased power and number of transponders on modern satellites, and the improvements in launch vehicles that allow them to transport more capacity to orbit with greater efficiency. The upgrade from the Ariane 4 to the Ariane 5 ECA model has been crucial, as has the development of the Proton K to the Proton M design.

“With this report we were hoping to illustrate something fairly basic,” said Mowry. “Launch service providers have done a great deal of work to improve vehicle performances so that prices have remained stable while bigger, more powerful satellites have been put into space. I think that is reflected in these figures.”