The probe into Virgin Galactic’s fatal crash on Friday could last about a year as the private space sector counts the cost of the bourgeoning industry’s second high-profile accident in less than a week.
Christopher Hart, acting chairman of the…
The probe into Virgin Galactic’s fatal crash on Friday could last about a year as the private space sector counts the cost of the bourgeoning industry’s second high-profile accident in less than a week.
Christopher Hart, acting chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) that is leading the investigation, also told journalists that debris from the SpaceShipTwo crash in the US that killed one pilot and injured another indicated a likely in-flight breakup.
He has been cited saying a safety device designed to slow the craft on re-entry had been deployed early, although it was too early to tell whether it caused the crash.
Citing a person familiar with NTSB’s investigation, the Wall Street Journal said early analysis suggests a violent structural failure, rather than an engine explosion, which could force the British space tourism venture to redesign large portions of its rocket ship and alter passenger specifications.
Virgin Galactic had been due to launch commercial operations in early 2015 with a craft that carries two pilots and six passengers, however, some analysts believe the nascent space tourism industry as a whole could have been set back by several years.
Earlier media attention into the crash had focused on SpaceShip Two’s hybrid rocket motor, which was using a new type of plastic-based fuel for the first time in flight.
Virgin Galactic also faced questions about its approach to safety after Carolynne Campbell, a rocket propulsion expert with the Netherlands-based International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety, was cited alleging it had ignored its repeated warnings about the spacecraft’s motor and fuel.
Responding to the speculation yesterday, the British firm said safety had guided every decision it has made over the past decade, adding that “any suggestion to the contrary is categorically untrue”.
It said: “Everything we do is to pursue the vision of accessible and democratised space – and to do it safely. Just like early air or sea travel, it is hard and complicated, but we believe that a thriving commercial space industry will have far reaching benefits for humanity, technology and research for generations to come.”
The flight test was conducted by the company’s partner Scaled Composites, which is owned by US aerospace and security giant Northrop Grumman.
Virgin Galactic is 38%-owned by Abu Dhabi-based investment firm Aabar, with the remainder held by the UK’s Virgin Group conglomerate. The company has also been designing a smallsat launcher and had recently been reported to be considering a tie-up with Google to help the internet giant realise its space ambitions.
The venture had taken around 700 bookings for its suborbital tourism flights at about US$200,000-US$250,000 each. The group’s initial finances had also included US$400m of Abu Dhabi investment, but this is thought to have been largely used up over the years, with the Virgin parent now effectively funding day to day operations.
Its founder Sir Richard Branson has meanwhile vowed to push ahead with plans to become the world’s first space tourism operator following the crash, while Hart reportedly said it could still conduct test flights during NTSB’s investigation. It is unclear whether the delay means the company will need to seek further funding to take the business to commercial operations.
However, coupled with the explosion of an unmanned Orbital Sciences rocket just days before, the disaster will be a major blow to private space ventures hoping to clear ambitious timetables, and could also make it more difficult for space start-ups in general to secure the funding they need to gain scale.
*Update – 4 November 2014 – Initial findings show lever was pulled prematurely*
NTSB has indicated that a lock/unlock lever was pulled prematurely and could have led to aerodynamic forces deploying the craft’s feathering mechanism too early, Virgin Galactic said on 4 November.
“At this time, the NTSB investigation is still ongoing and no cause has yet been determined – these are purely facts based on initial findings,” the company said.
“We are all determined to understand the cause of the accident and to learn all we can.”
