Aon has released a report on geomagnetic storms and extreme solar weather, pointing out that solar activity follows a roughly 11-year cycle and that the next maximum in this activity is expected to occur this year.
The report points to three areas of…
Aon has released a report on geomagnetic storms and extreme solar weather, pointing out that solar activity follows a roughly 11-year cycle and that the next maximum in this activity is expected to occur this year.
The report points to three areas of modern critical infrastructure that are especially vulnerable: electric power distribution, such as high voltage power grids; telecommunications; and global satellite navigation.
Aon highlights the effects of the last peak in sunspot and solar flare activity when between October and November 2003 at least seven satellites produced electronic errors, with three experiencing solar array degradation and one a change in orbital dynamics.
As to the potential costs of space weather events, the report emphasizes that few attempts have been made to calculate this. However, it did point out that the 1996 – 2005 sunspot cycle damaged around 15 satellites at a cost of about US$2bn.
In addition, if there was a repeat of the 1859 solar event, the so-called Carrington event that was the most severe space weather occurrence in the last 150 years, then it has been estimated that it would produce a potential economic loss of US$44bn through lost transponder revenue and about US$24bn for the replacement of geosynchronous satellites.
To mitigate this risk the report suggests that with adequate warning, and there is a 50/50 possibility that a severe space weather event could be forecast hours in advance, satellites could be parked in safe mode, thereby minimising the potential damage.
